Dover Heights has recorded one of Sydney’s lowest birth rates, with new data showing fewer than 0.01 births per capita over the past decade.
Fewer Births Recorded in Affluent Eastern Suburb
Dover Heights has been identified as one of Sydney’s suburbs with the lowest birth rates, according to new figures released by the NSW Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages. The suburb recorded under 0.01 births per capita between 2014 and 2024, placing it among several eastern suburbs experiencing minimal population growth from new births.
Regional Comparison Shows Western Surge
The data highlights a contrasting trend across the city. Suburbs in Western and North-West Sydney—such as Liverpool, Box Hill and Marsden Park—have emerged as birth rate hotspots, with Liverpool alone registering 1,511 births in 2024. These areas are attracting younger families due to affordable housing and access to community support.
Demographic and Economic Factors Driving the Trend
Experts from the Australian National University link the disparity to economic pressures and housing affordability. Newer suburbs with larger, more accessible properties continue to attract growing families, while inner-city and coastal suburbs like Dover Heights see fewer births due to higher property prices and an ageing population profile.
Social researchers note that Sydney’s urban growth has shifted over the past decade, pushing the family demographic further outward as affordability shapes lifestyle decisions. This has contributed to a wider gap in fertility rates across socio-economic lines.
Broader Population Impact
Greater Sydney’s fertility rate in 2023 was 1.55 births per woman, falling short of the replacement level of 2.06.Without migration, analysts suggest the city’s population would have entered decline as early as 2011. While migration offsets some of the demographic downturn, experts warn it does not resolve long-term pressures on infrastructure, services and education.
Future Outlook
With birth rates falling across both high-growth and mid-growth areas, researchers indicate the current patterns are likely to continue unless addressed through policy reform and expanded fertility support. Dover Heights, like several affluent Sydney suburbs, may continue to see lower family growth unless broader housing and social trends shift.
Published 1-May-2025